Costco reports Q3 earnings after the market closes on Thursday, Sept. 24. Over the past two years, the stock has almost always moved in one direction after earnings.
Costco's model isn't retail — it's a membership‑driven cash engine whose predictability makes earnings almost pre‑announced, even before the quarterly call. With warehouses expanding, renewal rates above 92%, and gross membership income nearing $9B, Costco's core profit pool is accelerating into FY26. A massive cash build and a history of “Christmas” payouts set the stage for a potential special dividend as Costco enters its most anticipated quarter.
Looking at this week's calendar of events which may impact market trading, Thursday stands out.
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U.S.-China trade talks could ease tariff pressures, putting semiconductor, technology, retail and auto ETFs in focus as investors assess the potential impact on China-exposed companies.
Besides Wall Street's top-and-bottom-line estimates for Costco (COST), review projections for some of its key metrics to gain a deeper understanding of how the company might have fared during the quarter ended August 2026.
Stock futures are rising as oil prices and government bond yields retreat; the AI trade is starting off the week hot, with a number of chipmakers gaining; crypto stocks are also rallying as bitcoin climbs to its highest point since January; Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery are reportedly nearing a settlement to the suit several states filed to block their merger; and earnings from Costco and a Meta event are on tap this week.
Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will meet Thursday to discuss a range of economic and geopolitical topics. We'll see data on manufacturing , services, and new homes, and earnings from KB Home and Paychex.
The Fed ended months of speculation when it raised interest rates last week. With that round of uncertainty resolved, Wall Street may shift its focus back to more everyday matters, such as fuel and food sales—at least, partly.
The last time Costco shares traded at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.9, the retail stock soared 39% over the following 12 months. Nvidia, arguably the most dominant company on the face of the planet right now, is significantly cheaper than Costco.